You Really Ought to Give Iowa a Try

My predictions are:

Ron Paul will squeak out a win in the Iowa Caucus creating all kinds of headlines. Romney will come in second which is still a win. Iowa is not his crowd and Paul can't win the nomination. But Paul's supporters are more motivated than Romney's. Gingrich (again, finally and deservedly) will be soggy toast even if he stays in until South Carolina. Santorum will "surge" just enough to think he can keep going and crash in the next contest. Bachmann and Perry will end their campaigns. Huntsman will come in dead last but not quit because he's got the cash to go to New Hampshire.

We'll take score Tuesday night and see how I do. (Preparing to be wrong in all my predictions.)

I heard Gingrich tell Chuck Todd today that he is too strong a personality to be Vice President. (Bwah-wa-wah). He's certainly a strong "something." I was thinking of something more like "stinker."

My source for reliable polling remains Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight. He shows Romney and Paul neck and neck in Iowa. I don't like Paul much, so it just may be my distaste for Romney that wants him not to win it. Romney wasn't betting much on Iowa because of the Christian Fundamentalist base. He got some hope when the various anti-Romneys kept diving after their rotating peaks.

Whatever happens in Iowa, Romney remains the inevitable nominee. While we had the Hillary inevitability fail so miserably four years ago, we don't have a "Senator-Obama-type" in the Republican field to overcome Romney. The cycle of surges is about over with one failure after another. If the Republican base were a bit saner, it could be Huntsman. I admit I'd like to see that. But, in spite of Huntsman's abilities and solid conservatism, he's too "liberal" and too Mormon for the base (even if he's not Mormon enough for some of the Utah Republican base. ¡Ay, ay, ay!) I still think Huntsman is prepping for 2016 hoping for a return to Republican normalcy. We'll see.